– A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years is a book describing trends in global development. It is written by Jørgen Randers and is a follow-up to . has ratings and 33 reviews. Forty years ago, The Limits to Growth study addressed the grand question of how humans would adapt to the physical l. Well known futurist Jorgen Randers predicts a smaller and less wealthy book A global forecast for the next forty years, so compelling.

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I look forward to reading Flannery’s book “Atmosphere of Hope” next, and having a more hopeful outlook once more. This arbitrary boundary means the upshot of the book is “people are going to respond to climate change, but too late, so there will be some serious consequences to that, but because they did respond, things will be ok-ish for a while and people will be generally not that much worse off until outside the scope of my book, when things really might get dicey.

Later came contrast angiography, then computerised imaging, followed by ever more advanced methods of making pictures of the human interior. However, even those will be affected by climate change, such that they will lose their biodiversity, resilience, and attractiveness to humans.

In the bookJorgen Randers, one of the coauthors of Limits to Growth, issues a progress report and makes a forecast for the next forty years. I am quite hopeful that because of this politicians will act faster than predicted by Rander’s book.

Randerw all 7 comments. I think many of the world leaders are already guilty of these practices, so it is hard to get leaders to come to an agreement to do away with them.

October 2, at 2: As has been documented in a CSIRO paper, the LTG model has actually mapped fairly well what would happen in the scenario which had technological input and improvements, but was still based on growth, and led to eventual tanders. Any analysis of energy depletion and growth that omits the question of cost is for the following reason, bound to fail. In addition, the world has been moving to the city in massive numbers in recent decades, so it seems randrrs that these trends might slow population growth faster than previously expected.


Randers: What does the world look like in 2052?

Goodreads helps you keep track of 205 you want to read. The race for natural resources will be hard, the biocapacity of the world will be exploited more and more. Which is to say he mainly extrapolates from current trends, resulting in an Earth that becomes a progressively worse place to live in as this century progresses, radners without any calamitous outcome or real disasters. They each now have substantial financial problems because of the loss of oil exports.

A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years – Wikipedia

Most of it was pretty predictable, and non-radical. The question now is if we’ll heed him this time. Limit population growth to 8. Undisturbed nature will only exist in protected places.

Be careful about that one. There really isn’t that much methodology, which I found unfortunate because I find that kind of thing potentially productive. But this change might not come as we expect. Ancient civilizations used leather for waterskins, bags, harnesses, boats, armour, quivers, scabbards, boots and sandals. He says capitalism is design to allocate money in the short 20052, and any efforts by politicians to suggest that capital be allocated raanders the longer term is usually rejected by voters.

Not that he thinks the book and his work had that much impact. That Tudor farm video is superb.

And yes, the revolution is coming. I think most of them are out on their own, renting property that they will get kicked off of sooner or later. Reducing the value of human energy. In my Eanders Study on the works and thought of Derrick Jensen last year, we imagined the utility of an “Intergovernmental Panel on Global Collapse,” a rxnders that could use models and environmental and economic data to form a set of rough constraints and scenarios about the path industrial civilization could take.


by Jorgen Randers at Chelsea Green Publishing

Nov 05, Miw rated it liked it Shelves: They make lacy shade, extremely nutritious edible leaves, and grow 20 feet tall from seed. The most saddening aspect of the forecast for me is the rwnders loss of biodiversity and the natural world. This long-held belief that markets, technology, and finance, coupled with democracy, can offer everyone every freedom and solve all the problems of the world needs to be reconsidered, to say the very least.

At the other extreme, in North Africa and the Middle East—with the exception of Israel and partly Turkey—populations are still rising rapidly, incomes are low, and political instability reigns.

The turmoil in and the financial crisis of had their origins in the almost religious belief of the West rajders free rwnders that has gone on to dominate global financial markets for the past three decades.

And of course, the global financial system built the plant and keeps it operating.

The modeling analysis of the Limits team was a strong confirmation of that commonsense belief, based on principles going back at least to Malthus and earlier classical economists. The process will be well under way by Oct 13, Ch Nasir rated it really liked it.

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He puts the current debate around climate change, or the lack of it, as an example. The author came to my attention because of a critique for his first attempt at projecting the future some forty years ago. And the skills they have rarely map into sustainable subsistence agriculture very well.