Gary Shilling has fingered ‘deflation’ has a global malady. The problem is that he doesn’t know what deflation is. Shilling runs the New Jersey-based economic consulting firm the bears his name , A. Gary Shilling & Company, and he is the author of The Age. A. Gary Shilling is president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., a New Jersey Investment Strategies for a Decade of Slow Growth and Deflation.” Some.
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And the third interesting factor is Treasury yields, as low as they are, are much higher than those of almost every other developed country.
Recognized as an effective and dynamic speaker, he often addresses national and international meetings of various business groups, including the Young Presidents Organization. If you simply look at the rate in which the deleveraging has taken place so far, it could actually take another 6 or 8 years.
Shilling has published numerous articles on the business outlook and techniques of economic analysis and forecasting, and he serves as Associate Editor of Business Economics, the journal of the National Association of Business Economics.
How much longer do you expect the age of deleveraging to continue? They seemed to increase rates 25 basis points-a quarter of a point-last December I shilllng because they’ve been crying wolf so long their credibility was disappearing. Earlier, dedlation a high school senior, he ranked 12th in the nation in the Westinghouse Science Talent Search.
Now that’s just putting a ruler on trend. Before establishing shillimg own firm inDr. I mean if you go back eeflation couple of months they in effect said they were going to raise rates four times this year and now it looks like they may raise once or maybe not at all Yes, definitely, and the reason is because OPEC is a cartel.
He is also an avid beekeeper. In the spring ofhe was among the few who correctly saw that a recession would start late in the year. Do you still believe that and what will be the driver?
Shilling does not yet xeflation any mutual funds, but CNBC anchor Bill Griffeth was so impressed with his investment approach that he profiled him along with 19 well-known mutual fund managers in his book, The Mutual Fund Masters Probus Publishing, He also was an informal economic advisor to former President George H.
Shilling is the President of A. One is that Treasuries have a tremendous safe-haven appeal. Well, the Saudis-the leader of the OPEC cartel-decided shillng they were not going to go along with that and that they were going to basically encourage OPEC to not increase production-not to cut-and to play a game of chicken.
Shilling: World Facing High Probability Of Panic Deflation | Seeking Alpha
He is also the creator of The Deflation Game, a board game that illustrates and reinforces his long-term forecast that deflation is a greater threat than a return to high inflation. But now they look around, labor markets are certainly weak. Inhe stood almost alone in forecasting that the world was entering a massive inventory-building spree to be followed by the first major worldwide recession since the s. Foreigners, when times are tough, go to Treasuries So, for European investors, they basically can invest in Treasuries and pick up a yield spread and if the dollar rallies, as I think it will, they get a double whammy because they get more yen or more euros when they convert that back into their own currency.
Twice, a poll of financial institutions conducted by Institutional Investor magazine ranked Dr. Yeah, I’ve been on record-I said in our Insight newsletter early in the year that I thought the next move of the Fed would be to cut rates not to increase them. He appears frequently on radio and television business shows.
Where do you think rates syilling headed-higher or, given how things are playing out currently, lower to try and ease financial conditions? Shilling is well known for his forecasting record. Cartels exist to keep prices above equilibrium-that’s the only reason for defltion that encourages cheating; somebody in or out of the cartel wants more than their share and so the leader of the cartel’s job is to cut its own production to accommodate the cheaters.
InMcGraw-Hill published Deflation: His first book, Is Inflation Ending? I certainly do and there are several factors. His fourth book, Deflation: You look now and Germany is negative; Japan, they’re negative.
To listen to this full minute podcast with Gary Shilling, renowned economist and author of The Age of Deleveraging, please log in and click here. Here is an abbreviated version of his recent interview with Financial Sense, which aired Friday on our podcast.
Gary Shilling ::
In the late s, when most thought that raging inflation deflwtion last forever, he was the first to predict that the changing political mood of the country would lead to an end of severe inflation, as well dhilling to potentially serious financial and economic readjustment problems, and a shift in investment strategy from one favoring tangible assets to an emphasis on stocks and bonds.
The second factor is that we have virtually no inflation and a high probability of panic deflation by my assessment. Gay frequent contributor to the financial press, he is a regular columnist for Forbes magazine and his articles appear in other leading financial publications. How to survive and thrive in the coming wave of deflation, which was translated for readers in China.
Half of Federal Reserve board members are forecasting only one rate hike this year now when most thought we would see four rate hikes in